Small island states face linked ocean risks

Oct 5

2 min read

Rank 7 | Climate and nature | Small island developing states / Global | SDGs 13, 14

Source publication: 30 September 2026. Clock time not stated by publisher. Evidence status: Peer reviewed ocean risk assessment.

AI-generated representative illustration | cyanotype print with subtle ocean-blue tonal detail. Credit: Development Connects | Kallol Saha.

Small island developing states govern exclusive economic zones spanning about 8% of the global ocean, a peer-reviewed chapter of the tenth Copernicus Ocean State Report says. Published on 30 September in State Planet, the research examines how ocean change intersects with island societies, economies and ecosystems. The 8% figure describes maritime jurisdiction, not land area or protected ocean.

The authors find that 65% of small-island exclusive-economic-zone area is experiencing accelerated sea-level rise. They also report that 56% of those zones show rapid increases in tropical-cyclone heat potential since 1960. Nearly one-third of the area contains coral reefs classed as vulnerable, endangered or critically endangered. These are different indicators with different denominators; they do not mean that 65% of islands have suffered identical damage.

Case detail

The chapter, led by Flora Gues and co-authors, combines environmental, economic and societal indicators. It also reports that cumulative tropical-cyclone damage exceeded half of national GDP in approximately 40% of the assessed small island states, and that nearly 20% had experienced storm surges above three metres. These historical or cumulative indicators are not annual forecasts for every island.

The paper examines mangroves as a source of coastal protection, alongside the exposure of reefs and marine livelihoods. Its approach connects jurisdiction over large ocean areas with the vulnerability of relatively small land-based economies. The peer-reviewed assessment supplies a regional evidence framework, while decisions about settlements, infrastructure and ecosystems still require location-specific information.

Evidence and delivery status

The 65% finding concerns EEZ area, while the 56% finding counts EEZs. Neither means the same share of island residents has experienced identical damage. The paper assesses ocean conditions and exposure. It announces neither adaptation finance nor a measured reduction in the risks facing island economies.