WMO urges early action as El Niño strengthens

Source publication: 21 October 2026; publication time not stated by WMO. Region: Global. Relevant SDGs: 2, 3, 6, 11, 13 and 17.

The World Meteorological Organization says the current El Niño could become unprecedented in strength, increasing the need for early humanitarian action. In a statement issued on 21 October, WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the agency’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures may reach 3.8°C above average during November 2026–January 2027. The event is expected to peak around December.

WMO stresses that El Niño is a natural climate pattern, not a phenomenon caused by climate change. However, a warmer atmosphere and ocean can intensify associated heat, rainfall and drought impacts. The outlook is seasonal: it does not predict a specific flood, drought or storm at a particular place and time.

Regional pathways differ. WMO expects wetter-than-normal October–December conditions across parts of East Africa, raising flood concerns. Southern Africa may turn drier from November, increasing pressure on crops, water and livelihoods. Southeast Asia faces warmer conditions and rainfall deficits, with implications for agriculture, water supplies, wildfire and smoke. Across the Americas, the outlook points to increased rainfall in the north-western United States and southern western South America, while drought risk may rise in Central America, the southern Caribbean and the Amazon.

The humanitarian concern is prospective, not an achieved result. UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher told Reuters that about 50 million people could face increased hunger. That figure describes people at risk; it is not a count of people already newly hungry because of this El Niño.

WMO and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs are urging anticipatory action: translating forecasts into early warning, preparedness and support before hazards peak. The statement announces no new funding commitment, approved budget or measured disaster-loss result.

Primary source: World Meteorological Organization — “El Niño and humanitarian action”. Corroboration: Reuters — “El Niño could be strongest in 40 years, UN weather agency chief says” (21 October 2026, 11:33 UTC).