In-Kind Welfare Transfers Shift 22 Crore Indians Into Higher Measured Consumption Groups

Rural Development Today | 14 October 2026 | India | Social Protection, Rural Consumption and Inequality | SDG 1 and SDG 10. By Development Connects.

An analysis of India’s Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) 2022–23 estimates that approximately 22 crore people, representing 15.8% of the population, move into higher consumption groups when the estimated monetary value of selected government-provided goods is included in household expenditure. The proportion is 18.8% in rural India and 8.4% in urban India, according to research by Amitava Saha and Gopal Saha of the National Statistical Office (NSO). The findings were reported on 14 October 2026 following publication in the 121st issue of Sarvekshana, the journal of official statistics.

The researchers examined goods obtained free or at subsidised prices through public programmes. These included foodgrains supplied under the Public Distribution System and selected non-food items, including school uniforms and footwear. The study assigned monetary values to eligible items and incorporated these into monthly per capita consumption expenditure, or MPCE. It then compared households’ positions in the consumption distribution before and after the adjustment. The resulting movement into higher consumption groups represents the estimated value of goods received, rather than an increase in household cash income.

West Bengal recorded the highest proportion of people moving into higher measured consumption groups among the 18 major states examined, at 40.5%. The state’s rural proportion was 46.5%, compared with 24.9% in urban areas. Chhattisgarh ranked next nationally at 29.2%, followed by Assam at 29.0% and Karnataka at 28.4%. In Chhattisgarh, the corresponding rural and urban proportions were 33.0% and 13.6%. Karnataka recorded 36.9% in rural areas and 13.5% in urban areas.

Among other major states, Uttar Pradesh recorded 22.7%, Telangana 22.2%, Andhra Pradesh 18.8% and Tamil Nadu 18.7%. Gujarat recorded the lowest proportion among the 18 states, at 3.7%, followed by Kerala at 4.6%. The state figures represent the percentage of people changing consumption groups after the valuation adjustment. They are not poverty-reduction rates.

The researchers also examined changes in measured consumption inequality. At the national level, the rural Gini coefficient declined from 0.266 to 0.261 after selected in-kind transfers were included. The urban coefficient declined from 0.314 to 0.309. Both represent reductions of 0.005 points on the Gini scale. The adjusted estimates therefore show lower measured inequality in both rural and urban consumption distributions. The study found that movement across consumption groups was generally more pronounced among households initially occupying the lower portions of the distribution, particularly in rural India.

A second measure, the Gini Welfare Function, combines information on average consumption and its distribution. The researchers reported an increase in this measure from 1,474 to 1,518 in rural areas and from 2,408 to 2,448 in urban areas after the estimated value of transfers was incorporated. These results were derived from the same HCES 2022–23 dataset and its adjusted household-consumption estimates.

The analysis covered selected food and non-food transfers but did not assign monetary values to publicly provided medical services or education. It also did not directly calculate how many people crossed an official poverty threshold. The reported figure of 22 crore refers to estimated movement into higher consumption groups after accounting for specified goods supplied through welfare programmes.

The paper, titled Impact of In-Kind Social Transfer on Level of Living of Indian Households, was prepared by Amitava Saha, Deputy Director General at NSO Kolkata, and Gopal Saha, Deputy Director at NSO Guwahati. The findings reported in October 2026 were based on the 2022–23 survey period, not on household consumption measured in October 2026.

Source: ThePrint, 14 October 2026 — https://theprint.in/economy/govt-welfare-transfers-in-kind-improved-living-standards-of-22-crore-indians-bengal-benefitted-most/3070767/ . Research publication: Sarvekshana, Issue 121, National Statistical Office, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation.