UNEP quantifies the widening emissions gap
Source publication date: 21 October 2026 (publication time not provided) | Country/region: Global | SDGs: 3, 6, 7, 12, 13, 14 and 15
The United Nations Environment Programme has quantified how rapidly global emissions would have to fall to limit the size and duration of an expected overshoot of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. Its Emissions Gap Report 2026, publicly launched on 21 October, examines a lowest-possible overshoot pathway rather than predicting that governments will follow it.
Under that scenario, warming peaks at about 1.7–1.8°C around mid-century and returns to or below 1.5°C by 2100 with roughly a 50% probability. Getting onto the pathway requires global greenhouse-gas emissions to fall 18% by 2030, 45% by 2035 and 69% by 2040, all measured against 2025 levels.
Existing national plans are substantially weaker. UNEP estimates that full implementation of current nationally determined contributions would reduce emissions by only 5–8% by 2030 and 11–15% by 2035. Continued current policies would place warming at about 2.8°C this century. Full delivery of current pledges, followed by comparable effort, would limit warming to approximately 2.6°C; adding existing net-zero targets would lower that estimate to about 2.1°C.
These temperature levels are modelled outcomes under defined policy assumptions, not measured future results. The required percentage reductions are global pathway benchmarks, not commitments already adopted by every country.
The lowest-overshoot case also depends on removing and permanently storing roughly 320 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide during this century—about eight years of global CO₂ emissions at the 2024 rate. UNEP warns that every five years of continued CO₂ emissions at current levels adds around 0.1°C to peak warming.
The report also records progress: renewable energy has expanded, growth in coal and oil supply has been slower than earlier projections, and existing climate policies have reduced emissions in multiple jurisdictions. Scaling those policies remains the implementation test. The assessment does not announce new finance, binding national targets or achieved global emissions cuts.
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